In a sign of momentum that one Republican strategist is calling the GOP’s “secret weapon,” Republican voter registration gains in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania tell a different story about the upcoming election than the narrative the polls are weaving. According to a story in The New York Times, registrations for Republicans in these three key states could mean that the Trump/Biden election will be a lot closer than the media has been expecting.
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“Updated voter registration tallies show that Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in three critical states,” the Times reported on Monday.
The paper spoke to North Carolina political consultant Dee Stewart, who said that the news portends well for Republican success on November 3rd.
“The tremendous voter registration gain by the Republicans is the secret weapon that will make the difference for the Republicans in 2020,” Stewart said.
The swing looks especially promising in Florida, which has been called a “must-win” state for President Trump.
“Republicans say the increase in registered voters there has the potential to give the president an edge,” the Times reported. “In data released last week by the Florida secretary of state’s office, Republicans had narrowed the registration chasm with Democrats to 134,000 out of 14.4 million voters — fewer than 1 percent. In 2016, when Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, lost the state to Mr. Trump, Democrats held a 330,000-voter advantage.”
Democrat get-out-the-vote efforts in Florida have been hampered by the pandemic, says University of Central Florida professor Aubrey Jewett. She told the Times that Democrats were also counting on chickens that didn’t wind up hatching.
“I think Democrats were somewhat hopeful that there were going to be more felons that regained voting rights and actually registered,” he said. “That ended up not being a huge boost.”
Damn, you have to hate it when your plan to get out the criminal vote winds up crumbling!
While Biden remains ahead in almost every national poll, the truth is that a national lead means little to nothing in terms of the actual vote. This election will come down to the results in only nine states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
In a memo sent to supporters this weekend, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon sounded a tone of extremely cautious pessimism.
“The very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire,” she wrote. “The reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest. In the key battleground states where this election will be decided, we remain neck and neck with Donald Trump.”
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And if some of the rumblings we’ve heard about the secret contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop have even a smattering of truth to them, that could spell the end of Ol’ Joe’s candidacy.
If not…well, this one is going to come down to the wire.
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