This presidential race has been anything but steady. We’ve seen unprecedented twists, with Joe Biden bowing out of the race after facing mounting accusations from within his own party about his cognitive abilities. With Biden out, Kamala Harris took center stage, despite concerns over her lack of significant achievements and experience.
Summer polls even showed Harris with a surprising lead, though critics pointed to flaws in the sampling and methodology. Now, with just days to go, a new poll has flipped the race upside down.
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Enter Donald Trump, leading the charge. The latest numbers show Trump pulling ahead in what is shaping up to be one of the tightest, most contested elections in recent memory.
According to a fresh poll, the former president is edging past Harris in national support, shifting the momentum and leaving both parties scrambling for last-minute strategies.
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by three-points nationally, according to a recent poll.
An AtlasIntel poll, conducted between October 25-29, 2024 of 3,032 likely voters, found that Trump was leading with 49.5 percent of support, while Harris received 47 percent of support.
A new AtlasIntel poll conducted from October 25-29, 2024, reveals a major shift in the race. Out of 3,032 likely voters, 49.5% said they would vote for Trump, while 47% expressed support for Harris.
That’s a solid three-point lead for Trump. But it gets even more interesting in a head-to-head matchup between the two: Trump’s lead grows slightly to 49.8% over Harris’s 48.1%, a sign that independent and undecided voters may be leaning toward Trump in the final days.
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, meanwhile, managed to capture just 0.8% of the vote, indicating that the real battle is squarely between Trump and Harris. And when AtlasIntel asked voters about which candidate they reject “more,” 50.1% pointed to Harris, compared to 48.6% for Trump.
It’s a telling indicator of voter sentiment, suggesting that more Americans are uncomfortable with Harris as the next leader than with Trump.
AtlasIntel isn’t the only poll showing Trump in the lead. A recent New York Times/Siena College national poll also places Trump ahead of Harris by one point, 47% to 46%.
The margin is slim, but every fraction counts in a race this close. What’s more, Breitbart News’s Wendell Husebo reported that early voting numbers—especially in swing states—seem to favor Trump, with turnout trends suggesting that his base is showing up strong.
In a broader perspective, an Economist/YouGov survey shows that Americans believe Trump has the edge. When asked who they think will win, 39% of respondents said Trump, while 36% put their money on Harris.
That leaves 25% of Americans uncertain, a sizable chunk of undecided sentiment that could swing either way in these final days.
Early voting has become a crucial part of American elections, and in battleground states, the numbers are indicating strong support for Trump. Political analyst Mark Halperin stated on Tuesday’s episode of The Morning Meeting that “the election will be over on election day before we know who votes,” hinting that the early vote trends could solidify Trump’s advantage.
If turnout in key states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio follows the early vote patterns, Harris’s team could face an uphill battle come election day.
Harris is certainly no stranger to criticism, especially from conservative voters who have long questioned her experience and qualifications. While she enjoyed a lead in certain polls earlier this year, skepticism about her record and Biden’s abrupt departure from the race have brought her standing into question.
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With Trump’s growing popularity among likely voters, Harris now faces a tough road to November 5.
In these final days, it’s not just about winning over supporters; it’s about ensuring turnout from those who still have doubts. Her team is likely to focus on big, emotional appeals in major cities, hoping to capture enough enthusiasm to counteract Trump’s momentum.
But with Trump now leading in multiple polls, she’ll need more than just her base—she’ll need to pull in independents and moderates who may have reservations about both candidates.
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